Picks, Previews, and Prognostications, Week Eleven

Hello everyone from New Orleans, Louisiana, where we are celebrating the 21st birthday of, well, me.

Twenty-one years ago, I was born about five minutes before Alabama-LSU in 1987. The Tide won that game in Baton Rouge, 22-10.

Of course, I would love for that to happen again this year, but we will see how I feel about that game later in this post after a review of last week and then other predictions for this week's games as selected by the CW Sports staff.

Last week, I managed to go 6-2 in the head to head competition with the CW Sports staff. The best any one of them could do was 5-3, and only one of them could muster that.

My seven times "Not so fast" on the Georgia Tech-FSU game plus my pick of Texas Tech over Texas helped to push me over the top.

So, what is there for this week? Well, I am already 1-0 after last night's grand comeback by Utah to beat TCU and remain unbeaten, but here are the other games.

Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are looking to avoid a let down after a big victory over Texas last week. Oklahoma State is trying to remain in the Big XII South race with a win. Both teams still have a chance to make it to Kansas City to represent the South with a three-way tie, but Texas Tech can eliminate the Pokes all together with a win.

Texas Tech 45, Oklahoma State 41

California @ USC

As I pointed out earlier in the week, USC hasn't played anyone of meirt in their last four games, but the Golden Bears from Berkley are currently ranked in the Top 25. USC no doubt has a great offense as usual, but is their defense as good as advertised. The Bears will give the Trojans a run for their money, but USC is too strong in the Pac-1 to be challenged at home.

USC 35, Cal 14

Ohio State @ Northwestern

The Wildcats are looking at a bowl berth for the first time since 2005 and their fourth this decade, more than doubling their total bowl berths before the year 2000. Ohio State is still in the running for a Rose Bowl berth or even a Big Ten title if they can continue to win and get a Penn State loss. Northwestern may have home field advantage in this game, but that doesn't mean much when your stadium only holds 50,000 fans. A healthy Chris Wells will help the Buckeyes come out on top.

Ohio State 28, Northwestern 10

Georgia Tech @ North Carolina

Both Georgia Tech and North Carolina already have two losses in the ACC Coastal Division, just like three other teams, so a loss could be detrimental to any championship aspirations. Georgia Tech played a great game last week against Florida State and have won eight of the last nine against North Carolina. The Tar Heels can secure their first winning season since 2001 with a victory, and this should be the case on Saturday.

North Carolina 28, Georgia Tech 27

Cincinnati @ West Virginia

The Bearcats are currently tied for second in the Big East with Pittsburgh. Both teams are trailing the Mountaineers of West Virginia. Those three teams have yet to play each other until this weekend. WVU is starting to hit their stride after a big win over Auburn and are currently 5-0 at home this season. Make that 6-0 after Saturday.

West Virginia 38, Cincinnati 17

Arkansas @ South Carolina

Is their seriously nothing better this weekend to pick? Apparently not. I will make this one easy: Best defense in the SEC against the worst defense in the SEC. Sure, South Carolina may not have the greatest offense, but they are on enough of a roll right now that Michael Smith and company will not change that pattern as the Gamecocks celebrate Senior Day in Columbia.

South Carolina 24, Arkansas 10

Alabama @ LSU

The Crimson Tide are currently 60 minutes from clinching their first SEC West title since 1999. LSU fans have waited 675 days for Nick Saban to return to Baton Rouge as the coach of the Crimson Tide. Alabama is #1 in the country for the first time in almost three decades, and the question will be how they handle the pressure. The Tide will handle the pressure just fine because Nick Saban preaches one game at a time.

Alabama 24, LSU 14

So, we know what I think, but what previews and predictions are out there from other people around the country?

• Here is the Top 25 Overview from ESPN.com
• Christ Low, the SEC Blogger, has his things to watch for this weekend as well as his predictions for this week's games.
• Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com takes a look over the entire college football landscape for Week 11.
• Chris Fowler previews this weekend by looking at Florida's BCS Title chances, Barack Obama's change for college football, as well as a look at LSU-Bama (of course).
• Dennis Dodd of CBSSports.com blabs on and on about every little thing in college football this weekend and guess what game he also comments on?
• CBS' video preview of the Bama-LSU game is right here.
• The CBS "experts" make their picks for this weekend here.
• Steward Mandel of SI.com, as normal, offers his thoughts on this week's games as well.

Finally, to head into the weekend at full force, there must be a story on John Parker Wilson. With Alabama's success this season, Wilson has been a favorite subject of many articles, and SI.com's Andy Staples now takes his turn on JPW.

Who is LSU, Anyways?

Uh, just the defending national champions of college football, that's all.

The Bayou Bengals may have suffered a few humiliating losses this season at the hands of Florida and Georgia, but they still have very good skill players and have a core left from last season who still know a thing or two about winning.

Charles Scott has emerged as the biggest threat on the ground for the Tigers this season for a team that has all of a sudden gone from running back by committee to one solid guy. Scott is averaging 6.7 yards per carry this season with 11 touchdowns and 111 yards per game.

At quarterback, the picture is a little fuzzy. Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch have been sharing time all season, but that doesn't throw out the possibility of seeing freshman Jordan Jefferson take the field for the Fighting Tigers. Lee has seen the most action this season, completing 56% of his passes for 1427 yards on the season, but has a horrid touchdown to interceptions ratio at 12:10. He is also averaging one interception for every ten completions.

The true stars of LSU on offense are the wide receivers who can do some damage if Alabama allows Lee and company to get them the ball. LSU is led by Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd at receiver. LaFell has been the go-to guy this season, having a majority of the catches, yards, and touchdowns.

On defense, LSU has lost a lot from last season, but is still very stout on the defensive line.

The defensive line has a two-headed monster in Rahim Alem and Tyson Jackson. Both of these guys will be cause for concern for the Alabama offensive line and may be the best tandem they will face all season. Alem is the team leader in sacks with six and Jackson has four and a half himself. Combined, these two have 15.5 tackles for loss this season.

After the line, the defense gets a little shaky.

The leading tackler on the team, Harry Coleman, only has 47 tackles on the season from the safety position. Perry Riley is the leading tackler among the linebackers with 37 tackles. The secondary has only caused four interceptions all season and has been picked apart by both Matthew Stafford and Tim Tebow. John Parker Wilson could easily do the same if play calling permits.

Overall, the LSU defense has only caused eight turnovers this season, well below the 36 this team caused last season.

Obviously the keys for Alabama will be to keep LSU out of the offensive backfield, prevent turnovers, and create some turnovers of their own.

Now, before I go and get ready for the trip to Baton Rouge and the turning of 21 in New Orleans, I found an interesting set of articles that reflects the two sides of Nick Saban: Alabama and LSU. Hope you enjoy and be on the lookout for picks out the wazoo tomorrow, but since one of the games picked by the CW Sports staff is tonight, here is one to help tide you over until tomorrow.

TCU @ Utah

The Utes are undefeated, the Horned Frogs have one loss, albeit to Oklahoma. For all intensive purposes, this is the Mountain West Championship Game with both teams undefeated in conference, top ten in the BCS, and BYU with already one loss at the hands of TCU earlier this season. Utah gets this game at home, and that will be the factor that gets them over the top and into the BCS.

Utah 27, TCU 24

SEC Pass or Fail, Week Ten...and Links!!!

So, another week, and another installment of SEC Pass or Fail here at ITNOT.

This week in the SEC saw another big match up turn into a big blow out, some stellar defensive efforts, and some just horrid individual and team play. Out of all of that, here is what stood out.

Head of the Class: Alabama's Defense

Sure, Alabama was playing Arkansas State this week, but this was a team who has a win against a BCS team this season and scored 83 points in a game. All Alabama did was shut them out and hold them to 158 total yards.

In their last four games, the Crimson Tide defense has only allowed four offensive touchdowns and has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher so far this season. On top of this, the defense has four touchdowns of their own this season and will face their last tough road challenge of the regular season this weekend against Charles Scott and the LSU Tigers.

Pass: Florida's Tim Tebow

After the Gators lost to Ole Miss at home, many people were wondering what happened to Heisman winner Tim Tebow. Four games later, it's safe to say "Superman" has found his stride once again.

Since the Ole Miss game, Tebow is 52/75 with eight passing touchdowns to just two interceptions. He has also ran for six touchdowns in those games. He has led the Gators to three straight games of 40 points or more for the first time since the Spurrier era, and managed to set the school record for career rushing touchdowns (39), surpassing Emmitt Smith in the process.

Fail: Georgia

The Bulldogs were the pre-season number one team in the country, the national title pick by Lindy's pre-season magazine, and were suppose to have two Heisman candidates in Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford. Instead, the Bulldogs have fallen flat in their two biggest games this season.

Between games against Alabama and Florida, the Bulldogs have given up 90 points to those two teams in two losses. Both losses have managed to propel the opposing team into the national spotlight, while Georgia falls further away from where most people saw them at the beginning of the season. The Bulldogs are now playing for a spot in a New Year's Day Bowl instead of any sort of championship.

Pass: South Carolina's Defense

The Gamecocks started the season at 1-2 and were looking at an entire season like the way last year ended. Instead, the Gamecocks are now bowl eligible and it is due in large part to their defense.

South Carolina is only giving up an average of 15 points per game and have the best, and most underrated, defense in the SEC this season. USC has managed to do this while also having the worst turnover differential in the conference at -7. I thought Lou Holtz was crazy when he called the Gamecocks the best defense in the SEC earlier this season during halftime of a game they would lose, but they have made Lou look like a he knew what he was talking about for once.

Fail: Mississippi State

The Bulldogs had a great season last year and were looking to build on that success this season. Turns out that Mississippi State is Mississippi State once again.

Wesley Carroll was all about winning an SEC championship this season at SEC Media Days, but that focus has now shifted to just winning an SEC game. The Bulldogs have won one conference game all season and have blown chances against Auburn and Kentucky this season. State must win their final three games to even be considered for a bowl, but they must go on the road to Tuscaloosa and Oxford for two of those final three games. The only problem is State is win-less this season on the road.

Pass: Ole Miss

Ole Miss won three SEC games during the three year career of Ed Orgeron and won three games each season under Coach O. The Rebels have three SEC wins this season alone after last weekend's win over Auburn.

The Rebels are one win away from their first bowl since Eli Manning and company took down Oklahoma State 31-28 in the 2003 Cotton Bowl, and they have two very good chances to get that sixth win. The Rebels finish with two of their final three at home against Louisiana-Monroe and then the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Houston Nutt has things going in the right direction in Oxford and has the players to be making some noise soon.

Fail: Three Interception Quarterbacks

Interceptions are never the way to win a football game for your team. Multiple interceptions is just an easy way to spell "loss," and that's exactly what Georgia and Auburn did when their quarterbacks threw three interceptions each.

Kodi Burns and Matthew Stafford managed to complete three passes to teams in the wrong color jersey this past Saturday. Burns' interceptions all came in the second half and directly led to Ole Miss' final touchdown in a 17-7 Rebel victory. Auburn finished the game on Ole Miss' 25-yard line which would have been prime for a game-tying field goal. Stafford's blunders (which also included a fumble) also all came in the second half and led to two Florida touchdowns on the very next play after the interception as the Gators embarrassed the Bulldogs 49-10. It's pretty safe to say that three interceptions are not the way to win a ball game.

Epic Fail: Tennessee

The daisy orange and white have looked horrid this season, and it all came to a culmination after two straight losses to familiar foes.

Tennessee is currently sitting at 3-6 after back-to-back losses to Alabama and Steve Spurrier's South Carolina Gamecocks. The Vols have only managed 15 points in their last two games and had finally had enough to let Phil Fulmer go on Monday. The Vols will have a new general on the sideline next season for the first time in 17 years in hopes that they can once again return to greatness in the SEC. As it stands right now, it might take a lot more than a head coach to fix the mess on Rocky Top.

This week, even though they aren't in the SEC, an extra special Epic Fail goes out to the Michigan Wolverines, who will not be going to a bowl in Rich Rodriguez' first season in Ann Arbor. The losing season snaps a 33-year bowl streak for the Maize and Blue, which was easily the longest in the nation. The pain is only made worse as Ohio State, Michigan State, and Notre Dame are all having successful seasons once again.

So what is up concerning college football today?

• The Forde-Yard Dash on ESPN.com by Pat Forde takes a look at a potential eight team playoff and asks the question of where has George Teague gone.
• Ivan Maisel of ESPN.com looks into the BCS puzzle as well as Miami's second season under Randy Shannon.
• Chris Low of ESPN.com looks inside the SEC for his internal affairs and is sold on Alabama's three headed rushing attack.
• Steward Mandel of SI.com talks about the biggest storyline of this weekend in his weekly mailbag. Of course, its Nick Saban vs. Les Miles.
• Gentry Estes of the Mobile Press-Register takes a look at things Nick Saban has come to realize in his year and a half at Alabama.
• In today's Birmingham News, Ian Rapaport (my favorite blogger to read, btw) tells the story of how John Parker Wilson is among the Alabama elite quarterbacks, but he still needs some signature wins, starting with Saturday at LSU.

That's all for tonight. Tomorrow, we will take a look at LSU and all the threats they posses for this Alabama team.

Pete Carroll: The Adam Morrison of College Football

For the second time this week, USC (University of Southern California) head football coach Pete Carroll spoke out against the BCS, and he didn't have anything better to say the second time around.

"I think it stinks. I don't think it's the way it should be," he said Tuesday.

And that was just the beginning of his little therapy session with the media yesterday.

"What is the criteria of the process? Is it to pick the team that has the best season, that has the season that you like the most and feel best about voting for? Or is it the best team at the end of the year, the team that would win a playoff system if you did have it?"

Pete may be the cool factor of college football coaches, but apparently he doesn't know how to use the internet effectively.

Here is where I step in for him.

One quick type of "BCS formula" on google gave me this site as the first choice and it explains it.

Here is the short hand explanation of the BCS:

• The Harris Poll, made up of 114 voters of the media, makes up 1/3 of the formula.
• The ESPN/USAToday coaches poll, voted on by 60 coaches in the FBS (football bowl subdivision) makes up 1/3 of the formula.
• Six computerized polls (Peter Wolfe, Wes Colley, Sagarin, Seattle Times, Richard Billingsley, Kenneth Massey) rank the top 25 every week. The highest and lowest rankings for each team are thrown out, leaving four rankings. That average makes up 1/3 of the formula.

Upon further review, Pete just didn't take the time to look into the formula.

It's not about a feel good story or any of that crap, its for who the voters think is the best team, just like it has always been. No one outside of Los Angeles feels sorry for you and your team because you are not among the best right now.

Sure, you have shut out three of your last four opponents, but lets take a look at who these teams are:

• Arizona State: The Sun Devils currently sit at 2-6, having lost their last six games. USC beat them 28-0, while Oregon beat them 54-20 with their third string QB. Carroll tried to defend his conference by saying teams have been hit by the injury bug at QB, but it doesn't seem like that argument can hold much water. ASU's season may be looking up, because their next two games are against the other two teams on this list, followed by 3-5 UCLA and 5-3 Arizona. Possibility of a bowl: 15%.
• Washington State: The Cougars are currently 1-8 on the season, the only win coming against Portland State, a 3-5 team from the Big Sky conference in the FCS (football championship subdivision). The Trojans beat them 69-0, but a shutout of a 1-8 team is nothing, especially when they lose to Stanford 58-0. Washington State does not possess a win against an FBS team this season, and would be lucky to get one. Possibility of a bowl: BAHAHAHAHAHA!
• Washington:The Huskies make up the second half of the most inept state in college football this season, looking at a great chance at completing a defeated season. "U-Dub" is currently 0-8 this season and lost to USC 56-0. It is bad enough when you can't win a game, but it's even worse when your rival across the state, who is 1-8, can look at you and say, "Hey, at least we have won a game this season." Possibility of a bowl: About as likely as Ty Willingham getting another coaching gig.

It doesn't help USC's cause to have the fourth game of that stretch be a 17-10 squeaker against Arizona.

So Pete, you were wondering why your team dropped this week from five to seven in the BCS?

It's because your conference down right sucks on top of the fact that you lost to unranked Oregon State.

Look at the teams ahead of you, Pete. Oklahoma lost to #5 Texas. Texas lost to #7 Texas Tech. Alabama, Texas Tech, and Penn State are all undefeated.

Florida is the only other team ahead of you who lost to an unranked team in Ole Miss, but they have since beaten #8 Georgia like a drum and play in a stronger conference.

So, Pete, I hope this explains a lot of things to you so you don't come crying like Adam Morrison again because of your team's lack of consistency and ineptitude in Corvalis.

Like I said earlier, no one outside of Los Angeles feels sorry for you.

The ITNOT Top 25, Heisman List, and Monday Links

ITNOT's Top 25 for Week 11

1. Alabama
2. Penn State
3. Texas Tech
4. Florida
5. Texas
6. Oklahoma
7. USC
8. Oklahoma State
9. Utah
10. Boise State
11. TCU
12. Ohio State
13. Georgia
14. Missouri
15. LSU
16. Ball State
17. Michigan State
18. North Carolina
19. BYU
20. West Virginia
21. Georgia Tech
22. Maryland
23. Cal
24. Pittsburgh
25. Northwestern

Heisman Top 5

1. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech
2. Colt McCoy, Texas
3. Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
4. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
5. Tim Tebow, Florida

Being the sports enthuaist that I am, I have a routine for things which I look at each day during the week on different sites, so the Monday run down looks like this normally:

• On the Mark by Mark Schlabach on ESPN.com
• SEC Power Poll by Chris Low on ESPN.com
• My review of Alabama's most recent game and a question for the next week on Bleacher Report.
• Steward Mandel from SI.com lays out five things he learned over the weekend in college football.
• Dennis Dodd from CBS.Sportsline.com has his rundown of random musings from this weekend in his Dodds and Ends blog.

Nick Saban's Warnings, Basketball Returns, and Other Things

As if Nick Saban returning to Baton Rouge this week was not going to be enough of a media distraction, Alabama now has a No. 1 ranking in all polls to create a media barage during time with the media.

But don't worry, Saban has already issued a warning to the media on both instances.

After the game Saturday, the talk of of the Fighting Tigers had begun, and Saban was already clearing the air about his connections to this game.

"It ain't going to be about me," Saban said. "It's going to be about our players and about our team. And I don't care how hard anybody tries to make it about something else, it's not going to be. So I'm kind of giving you a little forewarning. If somebody wants to get a you-know-what chewing this week, that would be a good way to get it. Because it's not going to be about that."

Safe to say, if anyone drops the idea that Saban once coached the Bayou Bengals.....well, getcha popcorn ready!

As for the new BCS, AP, and Coaches' poll rankings, Saban was flattered, but made his statement to try and protect his players from the new distraction.

"We appreciate the interest shown to our team," Nick Saban said in a statement, "but rankings at this time of the season do not define anything relative to the post-season. Our concern is our preparation to play a very good LSU team and these external factors can not affect our planning, schedule or focus on the task at hand."

As fans, that goes for you, too. We play LSU this week, and any hopes of Miami and maybe even Atlanta to an extent hinge on this victory.

In other news, the Men's Basketball team took to the court last night with a new look, a new three-point line, and ready for a new season.

The Crimson Tide, sporting the "throwback" jerseys from a few years ago (which all indications are that the Tide will be in these jerseys all season) took to the court for their first open practice so far this season.

What transpired was somewhat familiar, but there were a few nice suprises.

The Crimson Team won 102-77, led by a Demetrius Jemison double-double and diaper dandy JaMychal Green's 18 points.

The White team was helped by Ron Steele's 21 points to lead the White team and a double-double from Alonzo Gee.

The suprises, however, were quite nice.

Mikhail Torrance, on the Crimson team, led all scorers with 27 points and nine assists to easily have the breakout afternoon in this game.

As for the new three-point line, which has been moved back a foot for the men's game, it did not seem to make a difference for the Crimson team.

JUCO transfer Anthony Brock, who shot 47% from three last season, was 3-6 from downtown as was Senario Hillman.

The best suprise of the afternoon, however, had to have been the free throw percentages for both teams.

The Crimson team shot 91% from the line, the White 75%. Both of those numbers are lightyear's ahead of the team's free throw percentage from last season.

The men will take to the court for their fist exhibition game on Thursday, November 6th, against Faulkner at 7pm.

Now, just for a quick rundown of what an early morning browsing of the internet has revealed:

• Sign ups for Mark's Madness have begun! To sign up, visit Coleman Coliseum sometime between 2-5pm Monday-Wednesday and between 6-9pm on Thursday for the Faulkner game.
• Mark Ingram has been named SEC Freshman of the Week this week for his performance against Arkanas State. Ingram ran for 113 yards and two touchdowns against the Red Wolves during Alabama's homecoming victory.
• Sources are beginning to report that Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer and UT officials have agreed to a deal that would have Fulmer step down at the end of the season.

That's all for now. Be on the lookout this afternoon for my Top 25, my Heisman list, as well as links from around the country concerning Alabama and the SEC.

Alabama Deserves #1, but Do They Really Want It?

In the craziness of college football, some things should never cease to amaze you.

For example, anyone who counted out Texas Tech last night with 1:29 to go and down one was an outright fool.

The only more perfect ending to that game last night than Harrell to Crabtree would have been if walk-on Matt Williams kicked the game-winning field goal. Too bad Michael Crabtree wanted the end zone.

So, with the Texas loss, Alabama looks to be in prime position to take the number one spot in the AP, ESPN/USAToday, and BCS polls.

It is not like the Tide doesn't deserve this spot. Alabama has only trailed for 75 seconds all season, has a top five defense, and is averaging 32 points per game on offense while only giving up twelve.

The real question to ask yourself is...Does Alabama really WANT the number one ranking?

From a fan's perspective, this is something you want for sure. To say that you were at Alabama while the team was No. 1 in the country hasn't happened in the regular season since some guy named Bryant walked the sidelines.

However, the ranking seems to be a curse this season.

There have been four teams in the top spot this season: Georgia, USC, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Each team has one loss right now.

If this sounds familiar, it's because the same curse was on the number two spot in the polls last season.

In 2007, eight different teams held the number two spot in the country over the course of the season, and LSU found themselves in that spot three separate times and USC two different times.

For those of you keeping score at home, out of the 16 polls released from the AP during the season (Preseason-Final), the number two spot changed hands eleven times. Even more crazy, from week five on, there was a new team at number two every week through the end of the season.

On top of this curse, Alabama would be number one in the country for the first time in nearly three decades going into three games where the Tide is 2-7 over the past three seasons.

Sure, this is a new Tide team with a new attitude, but nothing could make a season for either set of Tigers than to beat No. 1 Alabama.

So, when the polls are released in the next few hours and the BCS later tonight, I would fully enjoy the idea of Alabama being the best in the land.

However, this is the best time for the voters to give that big boost to Joe Pa and Co. to ensure he wouldn't be left out of the title chase if his Lions remain undefeated.

So, here is my belated outcry to put Penn State at number one.

Keep Alabama at number two. They seem to really like it here.