Picks, Previews and Prognostications, Week Ten

To start off the day, I think its a must that we all give a birthday shoutout to head coach Nick Saban today. Saban is turning 57 today and has done nothing but turn the Tide in his time in Tuscaloosa. So, Happy Birthday, coach.

Now, it is Friday, so that means its time for picks for the weekend's college football action.

Since I haven't been doing this blog but for just a few days, I'm still gonna jump on the train late to see how I do against the others on the sports staff at the Crimson White. So, for starters, here are the games they picked this week and my predictions for each.

Texas @ Texas Tech

Texas may be the most complete team in the country...if Colt McCoy is on his game. Oklahoma State threw him off a bit last week, but the 'Horns still came away with a win. Texas easily has the better defense in this game, but they would need a repeat performance of their game against Missouri to be able to run with the Red Raiders. Texas may have the better team, but strange things have happened in Lubbock, TX (see 2007 Oklahoma-Texas Tech). Texas Tech 42, Texas 41

Florida vs. Georgia in Jacksonville

The SEC East basically comes down to this game. Its a battle of quarterbacks (Stafford vs. Tebow) through the air and fan favorites (Percy Harvin vs. Knownshon Moreno) on the ground. It has been well documented this week that scars from last season's endzone celebration still exist in Gainesville, but both coaches have remained mum about the incident. Look for something from whoever scores first in this game to set the tone for another wild ride in Jacksonville. Florida 31, Georgia 28

Florida State @ Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets have taken to Paul Johnson's Triple Option a lot better than most people could have expected this season and are currently second behind Virginia in the ACC's Coastal Division. The Seminoles are on top of the Atlantic Division right now are are ranked in the top 20. FSU has escaped their past two games, being down by ten points in both of them before storming back for a win. Look for Georgia Tech to be able to squelch any comebacks on the Seminoles and hand Bobby Bowden his first loss to Tech as a head coach at Florida State. Seven times "Not so fast, my friend" on the CW staff. Georgia Tech 24, Florida State 20

Oregon @ Cal

Both of these teams are tied at the top of the Pac-10 standings, along with many others, with one conference loss heading into November. Both teams have been flirting with the Top 25 all season long, and Oregon is currently sitting at number 24. Both teams will also be playing in the rain on Saturday, giving an advantage to the Ducks who possess the fifth best rushing attack in college football. Oregon 28, Cal 21

Northwestern @ Minnesota

Sure, coach Saban is a great pick for Coach of the Year, but the job Tim Brewster has done at Minnesota this season cannot go overlooked. He has taken a Golden Gophers team from 1-11 in 2007 to bowl eligible and in the Big Ten race in 2008. They are currently second in the Big Ten behind Penn State, and they avoid playing JoePa and Co. this season. The Gophers easily continue their remarkable run during their last season in the Metrodome. Minnesota 24, Northwestern 10

Auburn @ Ole Miss

Sure, both of these teams may be 4-4 and 2-3 in the SEC, but they are heading in two separate directions. Ole Miss has two more conference wins this season than they had all of last season already and are excited about a possible bowl opportunity. Auburn is in a tailspin (maybe literally), dropping three of their last four, and their fans are watching the team fall apart at the seams. One thing may work in the Tigers' favor this weekend: Colonel Reb has not seen a victory at home against an SEC opponent in the last year and a half. Hotty Toddy, Gosh Almighty, Auburn's 4-5. Ole Miss 27, Auburn 17

Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame

Pitt is currently sitting pretty in the Big East right now and are finally starting to make progress under Dave Wannestedt. Notre Dame is apparently the Notre Dame of old after beating such powerhouse teams as San Diego State (by 7), Stanford (by 7) and Washington (0-7). Now, I will admit that I am not the biggest Notre Dame fan (not as bad as this guy, but see 1966 to understand), but I still think they might have a chance in this game. Cheer, Cheer for ol' Notre Dame...to lose. Pittsburgh 34, Notre Dame 27

Arkansas State @ Alabama

It's Homecoming at the Capstone, and the Tide are riding high into November like its nothing new. The thing is, it isn't anything new, but the final regluar season records over the past few years would dictate otherwise. However, this is a new team under a new coach with a new attitude. Alabama fans should actually get to enjoy Homecoming without taking some years off of their lives. Alabama 31, Arkansas State 10

Other games of Interest

• South Carolina 14, Tennessee 7
• LSU 31, Tulane 7
• Kentucky 17, Mississippi State 10
• Tulsa 28, Arkansas 17
• Oklahoma 38, Nebraska 21
• USC 88, Washington 7

So, there are my picks for the weekend, but what are the other writers across the country saying for this weekend? Here are some picks from other college football guys across the country

• Bruce Feldman, ESPN.com
• Chris Low, SEC blogger for ESPN.com
• CBS Sportsline staff
• Stewart Mandel, SI.com

So, go crazy in filling your brain with all of these predictions and be careful going out on Halloween/Nick Saban's birthday.

I, for one, will be out and about tonight myself with just one question to ask: Where is Harvey Dent?

Happy Haunting.

Who is Arkansas State, anyways?

This is probably a popular question that most people have been asking this week and then dismissing the thought with, "Well, we play them for Homecoming, so they can't be that good."

Uh, do those people not remember Houston last season? You know, Simeon Castille intercepting a pass in the end zone on the final play of the game to save a 30-24 win for the Tide.

This season will once again be no easy task if the Tide don't come ready to play against the Arkansas State Red Wolves, formerly the Indians.

For starters, these guys are no slouch. They went into Austin, Texas last season and lost to the Longhorns 21-13. They went into College Station this season on opening weekend and took down Texas A&M 18-14.

In other words, these boys come to play.

The Red Wolves run a spread style offense, focusing on using their quarterback Corey Leonard and running backs Derek Lawson and Reggie Arnold for most of their yards.

Leonard is averaging 210 yards per game through the air and another 50 on the ground.

Arnold and Lawson are sharing time at running back, but have amassed similar numbers, running for 555 and 553 yards, respectively.

On Defense, the Red Wolves aren't too shabby either.

They are 45th in the nation in total defense, ranking better than Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, and North Carolina.

They are led on the line by DL Alex Carrington who is second in the nation with 9.5 sacks per game.

Their leading tackler so far this season is LB Ben Owens with 51 stops.

So, it's quite easy to see that Arkansas State is not to be taken lightly.

Want some more opinions on the Red Wolves? Here are some links to other analyses.

• Here is my breakdown of this week's game from fansknowbest.com.
• Larry Burton, a member on Bleacher Report, laid out a preview of Arkansas State earlier this week.
• Here is the link to the official website of the Red Wolves if you feel the need to do a little investigating of your own.

Tomorrow, be on the lookout for predictions galore from me and many other writers from other sites.

Where have you gone, SEC Basketball?

Ok, just to start things off today, I want to comment on the now lack of Tampa Bay Rays hats found on campus after last night's clincher in Philly. About this time last week, there were more Rays hats than Bama hats around here.

Money well spent? Not so much.

Ok, anyways, in other news, the first poll of the college basketball season was relased today by USAToday, and the Crimson Tide are...no where. Not one single vote landed in the Tide's favor to start off the season. In fact, the SEC has only two representatives in the Top 25 to begin the season: Tennessee, the defending East and regular season champions, start off at number 13 and Florida will start the season at number 19 after missing the NCAA tournament all together, thanks in part to a big Bama victory in Atlanta last March.

None the less, here is the top 5 to start the season.

1. North Carolina
2. Connecticut
3. Louisville
4. UCLA
5. Duke

For the first time in the poll's history, the number one team recieved every first place vote. Safe to say, if the Tar Heels come up short this season, it will not be pretty in Chapel Hill.

But back to the SEC and their sudden drop in basketball abilities.

Sure, the Big East, ACC, and Pac-10 have taken over the college basketball landscape recently, but the drop of the SEC has been sudden. The SEC used to get record number of teams in the Big Dance. Now, from the pre-season outlook, six SEC squads would be a great year. Just look at the major (BCS) conference breakdown of the Top 25.

• ACC: 4
• Big East: 7
• Big 10: 3
• Big XII: 3
• Pac-10: 3
• SEC: 2

Major ouch. Traditional power Kentucky is in one of their roughest patches in their storied history. LSU, a Final Four team just a few seasons ago, just picked to finish second in the West and has a new coach. Mississippi State had a big fallout of graduates and transfers this off-season. Vanderbilt is a toatl unknown and doesn't have the big name shooters that everyone in the conference should fear. Alabama is coming off of two straight disappointing seasons.

In summation, the SEC is about as down as you can get right now, but there are plenty of chances to gain respect as the season moves on, and the Tide has the first big chance in the Maui Invitational.

The Tide will get a chance to potentially face North Carolina, Notre Dame, or Oklahoma and start off against 2008 tournament team Oregon. A couple wins here and the SEC, and the Tide, will get a lot of national respect heading into December.

SEC Pass or Fail, Week Nine......and links!

As will soon be a staple here on "In the Nic of Time," I take a look back at the week that was in the SEC with a weekly "Pass or Fail" segment.

More or less, its basically just a look at the good and the bad of the past week in the Southeastern Conference. Enjoy!

Head of the Class: Georgia's Darryl Gamble

It's one thing to have your first career interception go all the way back for a touchdown. It's another when you intercept two Pick-six balls in the same game.

Gamble did just that against LSU this past Saturday, taking back Jarrett Lee passes 40 and 53 yards, respectively. The two interceptions for touchdowns went a long way in helping the Bulldogs put 52 points on LSU en route to a huge win in Baton Rouge.

Pass: Florida's Special Teams

The Gators blocked a total of three kicks against the Wildcats of Kentucky Saturday, including Kentucky's first two punt attempts of the afternoon. The third block came on a Kentucky field goal attempt in the second quarter. The Gators used a total of five plays to score three touchdowns off of the blocks produced by their special teams.

Florida jumped out to a 28-0 lead by the end of the first quarter and finished off the Wildcats with a 63-5 woodshed beating.

Fail: Vanderbilt

Normally this would seem like a spot where most Vanderbilt teams would fit, except for this year's team. That seems to have changed.

After charging out to a 5-0 record with wins over a tough Ole Miss team and Auburn, the 'Dores have lost three straight, the last a homecoming loss to Duke. Vanderbilt quarterbacks have thrown seven interceptions all season, all but one of them coming in the past three games. Most people saw this season as the Commodores first chance at a bowl since 1984, but those hopes seem to be dwindling with remaining games against Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee and Wake Forest.

The 'Dores will have a good chance against Kentucky and Tennessee, but it will come down to whether or not they can move the ball on those tough two defenses.

Pass: Alabama's 2nd Half

After three recent second half debacles, Alabama put together their most complete second half to date and won the second half for the first time since Arkansas. Alabama had four drives in the second half. They ended Field Goal, Touchdown, Touchdown, Game.

On Defense, Alabama held Tennessee to 76 total yards in the second half and a touchdown on a drive which was aided by three pass interference calls. Short of the defensive short comings, Alabama played a fantastic second half.

Fail: LSU's Defense

What has happened to the LSU defense that we have seen over the last few years? In their last eight SEC games, dating back to last October 20th against Auburn, the Tigers have allowed an average of 33 points per game in the SEC. Allowing a total of 103 to SEC East leaders Georgia and Florida did not help this cause, but that still puts this highly regarded defense at giving up an average of 28 points per game, and that's still high.

Maybe its the absence of Bo Pelini, or maybe its just the quality of players LSU lost after last season. Whatever it is, the Tigers must fix it soon if they want a chance to be playing on New Year's Day.

Pass: Houston Nutt

The past two seasons, Houston Nutt had to deal with angry fans, questionable hires, and an Athletic Director off of his rocker. Even with all of this around him, Nutt still managed to compile an 18-6 regular season record in 2006-07, but every man has his boiling point, and Nutt met his after the 2007 season.

Nutt made a change to Ole Miss in the off-season and has taken the Rebels to a 4-4 record and 2-3 in the SEC, already surpassing Ed Orgeron's win total in each of his three seasons in Oxford and showing a 200% increase in SEC victories over last season. His last hurdle in year one may be to break the Rebels streak of home SEC losses, and he will have a good chance to do so with Auburn and Mississippi State still to visit Oxford.

Fail: Kentucky's tailspin

Sure, the Wildcats were off to their second straight hot start, getting to 4-0 and beating Louisville for the second straight season. However, it has been all down hill from there.

They have now lost three of their last four games since entering conference season, but those have not been their biggest losses. The injuries of Dicky Lyons, Jr. and Derrick Locke for the season have made the outlook to get to a bowl bleak for the 'Cats. Things may not look good right now, but the Big Blue travel to Starkville this weekend and still have games with Vandy at home and finish in Knoxville and are in need of only one more win to get bowl eligible.

Epic Fail: Auburn's Run Defense

Entering their game against Arkansas, Auburn was a respectable 14th in the nation in run defense. It had been the Tigers saving grace so far this year, and was the only bright spot seemingly left on this team after the firing of Tony Franklin and a loss to Vanderbilt.

Now, after Arkansas' Michael Smith put 176 yards on the Tigers followed by a 207 yard performance by West Virginia's Noel Devine, Auburn now stands at No.51 nationally and 8th in the SEC. The Tigers are now allowing an average of 128 yards on the ground per game in a league where running backs rule the day. The Tigers three remaining SEC games, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama, are against teams that have feature running backs (Enrique Davis, Knowshon Moreno, Glen Coffee) and teams that average over 150 yards on the ground per game.


Now, time for everyone's favorite part of the blog...at least mine anyways...amusing links to other stories.

• With the anticipation of hosting Alabama in next weekend starting to pick up, a local business is already announcing their plans for the weekend on a local billboard in Baton Rouge.
• Speaking of LSU, here is a guy to avoid for those of you making the trek to Tiger country.
• Sure, he may not be the most popular guy in the state, but Paul Finebaum's latest article takes a look at how expectations for this season have gone two different directions for Alabama's top two schools.
• On a more national scale, Ivan Maisel of ESPN.com breaks down this weekend's Texas-Texas Tech match-up and takes a look at Florida State's season to date in his weekly I-Formation.
• Just as he does every week, Stewart Mandel of SI.com answers questions about the college football season. This week, he tackles the question of how Penn State fits into the BCS given any number of scenarios.

With Cody Injury, Vols Have Their Poison Picked For Them.

To say that Alabama fans have been enamored with Terrance Cody since he signed back in February would be an understatement.

Cody is the biggest thing to hit Alabama's campus since Bryant-Denny itself, and the cheeks in the seats of of BDS have developed a cult following for the man they call Mt. Cody.

Don't believe me? Well then you must have been in the bathrooms when Mt. Cody ran on the field for the Jumbo package and a loud whisper overcame Bryant-Denny Stadium.

You also must have been back in there when Cody went down with an MCL sprain and had to be carted off the field while the rest of the stadium could hear a pin drop.

(By the way, if you were the one in the bathroom at both of these times or just simply don't remember either, here is a hint to fix both problems: drink less before the game)

As grim as the Crimson Tide faithful seemed after Cody's injury, there is no real need to get too down.

This is where freshman Josh Chapman steps in.

Never heard of him? Well, he has been rotating with Cody at the nose tackle position all season and has just as many tackles for loss as the big fella and only lags behind the tackles category by three after playing just half the time number 62 does.

Sure, he doesn't weigh nearly 400 pounds, but let me pose you this question as if you were an SEC center...

Take your pick: A man who weighs nearly 400 pounds pushing against you, or a man who can squat two of you pushing against you?

Having trouble making a decision? Personally, I would just take the medical hardship scholly and run.

In other words, what Chapman doesn't have in size, he makes up for in strength. The freshman from Hoover benches an impressive 450 pounds and squats 600.

According to Javier Arenas, Chapman draws the same sort of attention in the weight room that Cody has drawn from fans. He even fills up the bar with weight on both sides to the point no other weight can be added.

If you are at a loss for words right now, let me help: The kid is a beast.

So, to all the Tennessee fans who thought they had dodged a bullet with Cody going down, just remember the strongest man is out there now instead of the biggest.

Hate to tell you, but Chapman is no small task himself.